Last Updated: 2026-08-13 08:00 UTC
🟥 D-Layer Absorption & Space Weather Monitor
Live DRAP/GOES-style view for “why did 40 m just go to the pub?” moments.
Tropo conditions: Enhanced tropo expected over southern UK and nearby coasts.
External tropo check:
F5LEN Europe Tropo Forecast
Mode guide:
Tropo mode definitions (TR / AP / ducting etc.)
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 13-Aug 15 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 13-Aug 15 2026
Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15
00-03UT 2.00 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 1.67 3.33 3.33
06-09UT 1.33 3.00 3.00
09-12UT 1.00 2.67 3.00
12-15UT 1.33 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 1.67 3.33 2.67
18-21UT 1.67 3.33 3.00
21-00UT 3.00 4.00 3.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 14-15 Aug due to CH HSS
effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 13-Aug 15 2026
Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 13-Aug 15 2026
Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15
R1-R2 10% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low to very low 13-15 Aug,
though there is an increasing but slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, primarily driven by the development
observed in Regions 4503 and 4507.
Issued: 2026 Aug 10 0153 UTC
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 August 2026 Solar activity was at very low to low levels throughout the period, with no R1 (Minor) or greater events observed. Other activity three CMEs associated with DSFs on 03 Aug, which arrived on 07 Aug, as well as two CMEs without clear source locations on 04 Aug, which arrived at Earth on 08 Aug. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period. Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 08 Aug following the arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 04 Aug. Active conditions were observed on 03-04 Aug following the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels prevailed throughout the remainder of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 August - 05 September 2026 Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low levels throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 12-16 and 22-23 Aug. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 11 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 08 Aug, and again on 19 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 10 and 17-18 Aug, while quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are likely to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
| Date (UTC) | F10.7 | Ap | Largest Kp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 90 | 12 | 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | 90 | 20 | 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | 92 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | 92 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | 95 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | 95 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | 95 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | 100 | 15 | 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | 105 | 12 | 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | 105 | 20 | 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | 105 | 8 | 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | 110 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | 115 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | 115 | 5 | 2 |
Modelled MUF estimates based on current solar indices and UTC hour.
| Path | Estimated MUF | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Western Europe → East Coast NA | 22 MHz | 15 m open; 10 m marginal mid-day |
| Western Europe → South America | 25 MHz | Good 10 m potential via TEP |
| Western Europe → Oceania (Short) | 18 MHz | 17/20 m may support long-haul paths |
| Western Europe → SE Asia | 20 MHz | 15/17 m viable; 20 m reliable |
| Western Europe → Trans-equatorial Africa | 24 MHz | Strong 20 m; 17 m may open late PM |
Latest DRAP absorption map (courtesy of NOAA SWPC):
Dark red areas indicate significant D-layer absorption. Useful for spotting potential HF blackouts.
G7IZU HF MUF Plot (Latest):
G7IZU Sporadic-E Map (Latest):
Both images auto-refresh regularly and reflect near-real-time ionospheric and Es propagation.