Last Updated: 2026-11-05 13:00 UTC
🟥 D-Layer Absorption & Space Weather Monitor
Live DRAP/GOES-style view for “why did 40 m just go to the pub?” moments.
Tropo conditions: Tropo stable, some enhancement possible inland.
External tropo check:
F5LEN Europe Tropo Forecast
Mode guide:
Tropo mode definitions (TR / AP / ducting etc.)
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 05-Nov 07 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 05-Nov 07 2026
Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07
00-03UT 1.33 2.33 5.00 (G1)
03-06UT 1.67 2.00 3.67
06-09UT 1.67 2.00 3.33
09-12UT 2.67 2.33 3.33
12-15UT 2.67 2.33 3.33
15-18UT 1.67 3.67 3.33
18-21UT 1.67 4.00 3.33
21-00UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.33
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 06-07
Nov due to CH HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 05-Nov 07 2026
Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 05-Nov 07 2026
Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07
R1-R2 30% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio
blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts all
three days.
Issued: 2026 Nov 02 0217 UTC
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 October - 01 November 2026 Solar activity was at low levels with nine C-Class flares observed. Region 4561 (S11, L=28, class/area=Dai/030 on 26 Oct) produced the largest event of the period: a C2.8 flare at 26/1840 UTC, as well as nearly all of the remaining C-class flares of the period. The only exception was a C1.5 flare at 26/0134 UTC from Region 4560 (N13, L=49, class/area=Fao/020 on 26 Oct). The only notable CME activity was from a filament lift off at approximately 26/2142 UTC from an area near N30E75. Analysis indicated mostly a miss, though a glancing blow was not ruled out of the question on 31 Oct. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period, with the exception of 31 Oct when values dropped to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels 26-29 Oct, quiet to active levels on 30 Oct, unsettled to G2 (Moderate) levels on 31 Oct, and quiet to G1 (Minor) levels on 01 Nov. Activity increased the last two days as a result of the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS combined with possible CME effects mixed in from the 26 Oct filament eruption.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 November - 28 November 2026 Solar activity is expected to be predominantly at low levels, with a slight chance to a chance for isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts) flare activity associated with any developing spot groups during the period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels on 02 Nov and 06-18 Nov. Flux levels are anticipated to reach high levels on 03-05 Nov and 19-28 Nov. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 03-04 Nov, 08 Nov, 13-15 Nov, and 20-25 Nov. Unsettled to active periods are anticipated on 02 Nov, 05-07 Nov, 09-12 Nov, and 26 Nov. An increase to G1, possibly G2 geomagnetic storm levels is likely on 27-28 Nov. The increase in activity is associated with multiple recurrent coronal holes.
| Date (UTC) | F10.7 | Ap | Largest Kp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 95 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | 100 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | 100 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | 105 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-11-06 | 110 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-11-07 | 115 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-11-08 | 115 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-11-09 | 120 | 15 | 4 |
| 2026-11-10 | 115 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-11-11 | 110 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-11-12 | 110 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-11-13 | 105 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-11-14 | 105 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-11-15 | 105 | 5 | 2 |
Modelled MUF estimates based on current solar indices and UTC hour.
| Path | Estimated MUF | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Western Europe → East Coast NA | 21 MHz | 15 m open; 10 m marginal mid-day |
| Western Europe → South America | 23 MHz | Good 10 m potential via TEP |
| Western Europe → Oceania (Short) | 16 MHz | 17/20 m may support long-haul paths |
| Western Europe → SE Asia | 19 MHz | 15/17 m viable; 20 m reliable |
| Western Europe → Trans-equatorial Africa | 22 MHz | Strong 20 m; 17 m may open late PM |
Latest DRAP absorption map (courtesy of NOAA SWPC):
Dark red areas indicate significant D-layer absorption. Useful for spotting potential HF blackouts.
G7IZU HF MUF Plot (Latest):
G7IZU Sporadic-E Map (Latest):
Both images auto-refresh regularly and reflect near-real-time ionospheric and Es propagation.